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Can Cowboys Expect More Starters From Class Of 2010?

There is a widely held belief, particularly among fantasy football players, that many NFL receivers do not 'break out' until their third year in the league. While this belief has no statistical merit, there may be some truth to the underlying assumption.

The logic behind the third-year theory is that many young players need at least two years to develop. They need the time to learn how to hone their craft, understand the playbooks and develop physically and mentally. On paper, this would be particularly true of late-round draft picks or undrafted free agents who join teams when they are usually much less ready to play at an NFL level than their first or second round counterparts.

Here's a look at some later round picks and UDFAs on the current Cowboys roster and when they had their 'break outs' as measured by number of starts per season:

Player Draft Round 1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
Bradie James 4th 0 2 16 16
Doug Free 4th 0 7 16 16
Jay Ratliff 7th 1 0 14 16
Tony Romo UDFA 0 0 0 10
Miles Austin UDFA 0 0 0 9

Young players are mercurial. They can improve suddenly. But they often need time to realize their full potential. After the break, we look at the class of 2010 and try to figure out if the Cowboys can expect any 'break outs' from the players entering their third year in the league.

Star-divide

The class of 2010 is of course headlined by Dez Bryant and Sean Lee, picked in the first and second round respectively. For different reasons, neither was a starter in their first year, but both were starters in their second year, just as their draft pedigree would lead you to expect.

The Cowboys traded away a third and fifth-round pick to get Bryant and Lee, and of the remaining picks from the 2010 draft, only Sean Lissemore (7th round) and Josh Brent (7th round supplemental draft) remain on the team. The class of 2010 is augmented by a handful of undrafted free agents, as the following table shows:

Player Draft Round 2010 2011
Dez Bryant 1st 2 13
Sean Lee 2nd 0 15
Sean Lissemore 7th 0 0
Josh Brent 7th 0 0
Phil Costa UDFA 1 16
Barry Church UDFA 0 1
Jesse Holley UDFA 0 0
Danny McCray UDFA 0 0
Jermey Parnell UDFA 0 0

So far, the Cowboys have gotten two bona fide starters out of the 2010 draft class in Bryant and Lee, plus one additional starter in Phil Costa whose future as a starter is unclear. Are there any more potential starters on this list?

Sean Lissemore showed great promise in a limited role at both defensive end and nose tackle. He was on the field for about a quarter of all defensive snaps and very productive in his limited opportunities. He'll likely see an increased role in the defensive line rotation in 2012, but whether that will result in some starts remains to be seen.

Josh Brent is a solid, if so far unspectacular backup to Jay Ratliff at NT. He missed a four games last year due to a sprained MCL and a kneecap injury for which he underwent surgery after the season. At 320 lbs, he could easily bulk up and become the plugger in the middle many Cowboys fans are clamoring for. More four-man fronts in 2012 could see his playing time increase further, but is he good enough to start?

Phil Costa may have been thrown into the NFL water a year too early. His performance at center left a lot to be desired at times, but he began to come into his own in the second half of the season. The Cowboys will not give up on Costa, but it's unlikely he'll start at center for the Cowboys in 2012. Instead, he'll likely be a solid backup who may get a shot at another starting role in perhaps a year or two.

Barry Church and Danny McCray are probably career special teamers at this point (albeit darned good ones). Church played 171 defensive snaps last year, with the bulk coming at the beginning of the season, and the coaches using him less and less as the season wore on. McCray saw only 31 defensive snaps but led the team in special teams tackles for the second straight year.

Jesse Holley spent the entire 2009 season on the practice squad, so while 2010 technically counts as his rookie season, he's already been with the Cowboys for three years. He turned 28 a month ago, and there is no mystery anymore about his potential ceiling: he has reached it. And it's likely not enough to hold off the likes of Andre Holmes, Raymond Radway and Dwayne Harris.

Jermey Parnell played 10 snaps in 2011. But that's already something, considering that Parnell didn’t play any high school football and only one season of college football - at defensive end. The Cowboys like something about the 6-foot-6, 305-pound Parnell whom they kept on the roster instead of 2010 6th-round OT Sam Young. Parnell remains a project though.

Many players don't fully develop until their third year in the NFL. Which of the players above do you see taking a bigger role in 2012, perhaps even becoming starters?

0 recs  |  117 comments

Comments

L_Dawg73

I’m here. I’m in pain. I’m in disbelief. But I am here. That was one for the ages. We had it and gave it away. Either way, another classis UNC Duke game that will be replayed forever.

Sorry OCC. I had to my humble pie from the dookie.

I expect big things from Lissemore, Dez, and more of the same from Lee. Not so sure about the rest of the guys. I thought Dez was getting much better with his route running as the season wore on. You could see Romo’s trust in him growing. I think he could be HUGE next year.

Anyone that watched that game would be insane to think Duke was the better team

Epic collapse? Yes. But if you want to put your money on one of these two teams going forward, would you really pick Dook? Come on, they were out-classed for 58 minutes last night, only to find magic in a test-tube in the waning moments.

I still like the Tar Heels to win the ACC and be a #1 seed.

I agree with everything you said Dalai

But im in soooooooo much pain.

Not sure it was an 'EPIC' collapse

But it sure was the worst officiating of a big-time rivalry game I’ve ever seen.

Shout out to the 2011 Dallas Cowboys for conditioning me to endure last mintue losses like last night.

I feel your pain brother!!

I'm a Duke fan and UNC is a better team.

But they weren’t out classed for 38 minutes (I know that’s what you meant). Duke played a good first half for 19 minutes, so they were only out classed for the last minute of the first and 18 minutes of the second.

Psh.. ACC....

6th best conference in the nation….. Behind the Big 10, Big East, Big 12, SEC, and A-10….

In football yes. Basketball, it's number 1 or number 2 with the Big East.
yeah, he's on crack.
really? basketball?

A conference isn’t good because it has 3 good teams…. UNC, Duke, FSU. After that, it’s a bunch of losers. Just to give you a little perspective: The Atlantic-10 has a winning record vs the ACC. The A-10 is the 5th best conference, so logic says the ACC must be 6th :)

No

but these guys should become decent backups and role players

Lissemore has a chance to start

I think Brent and Lissemore have a good chance at being package players, which isn’t bad for a 7th round pick, if Parnell’s a back up OT or a Jumbo guy I’d say that’s a pretty good haul along with Church and McCray on s/t.

Lissemore and Brent

I see those two guys most likely to have their roles expanded. Lissemore I think could turn into a starter someday.

I’ve always liked Holley, so depending of whether Robinson and Ogletree will be back and the development of the younger receivers, I’d like to see Holley getting some snaps as the #3 WR.

I dont think Ogletree makes the 2012 roster
He better not, man what a long time he's had doing nothing.

Tried and failed with that one for sure! I like Holley’s reliablity most he hasn’t missed a catch yet.

Holley may have reached his limit, but I still think he could stay with the team.

He just seems to get it done. It is not certain, with the competition he will face, but if he keeps catching everything thrown at him, he might turn into a possession receiver.

FREE THE TREE!

I approve this message.
You have Romo's years wrong O.C.C.

Romo’s rookie season was 2003 and he didn’t get any starts until the 2006 season, his 4th season

You are correct.

I'm thinking

The team will not draft a NT early in this draft, but might target someone in the mid rounds to maybe put into a rotation with Brent, thus allowing Ratliff to spend more time at DE.

I agree with you.

Another way they could go is try and get a veteran NT to come to Dallas on a one or two year deal, so that guy can teach the tricks of the trade to young Brent, and slide Ratliff to DE, which makes this defense better.

Paul Soliai?
No I was thinking more along the lines of Pohua.

That way they wouldn’t have to give him a big money deal. With the full off-season that Brent has with the Strength Coach that should benefit him, and then having a veteran who could apprentice under for a year or two could make him really scary as a NT.

Not sure Brent will get a full off-season...

being that he will be recovering from surgery. Not sure on what procedure was performed, and I believe he will be ready for training camp, but he may not have the benefit of a full off-season of workouts.

OK, you lose Spears and Coleman at DE

and replace them with Ratliff and Hatcher at DE, with Lissy and Geathers rotating in.

And lose Rat at NT, and replace with Brent and a rookie rotation.

Like that?

Or do we keep Spears because he's under contract anyway?
Why do you say,
While this belief has no statistical merit

and then go on to show statistical merit of players breaking out. Then you even say

Many players don’t fully develop until their third year in the NFL

I am just confused I guess. I have seen many many WRs stat show they don’t come into their own til the 3rd or 4th season. True more WRs now are bucking that trend, I am just curious why you lend of with such a statement, I am probably misunderstanding something.

The “third-year wide receiver” is a fairly common meme around the NFL. There is no conclusive data (as far as I know) that shows that wide receivers “break out” in their third year more often than for example in their second or fourth years. So while that particular meme doesn’t hold water, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t some players that need more time than others to reach their full potential.

Ham...

A statistical significance would require a random sample, whereas Cool cherry picked those players.

If forced to wager, I'd bet on Lissemore and Church becoming starters from this group

Due both to need and potential

+1

on both. I liked what I saw from Church and hes a great STer.

one thing, looking at the list of DL Dallas has let leave

from that DMN post in Tom’s post earlier today, is that Dallas is pretty ok at getting good DL players even later. If Dallas had retained Bowen and he was playing where Coleman is, we’d think we’d have a pretty good basis for 34DEs

Yeah, but

they seem to get OK DL players in the later rounds. But there are no game changers in there. Other than pre-2010 Ratliff, we haven’t had a guy that forces the opposition to adjust. We’re not getting much push on a consistent basis.

we would have a different view if we retained Bowen, and I’m starting to second guess letting Canty walk too. JJ Watt had 5.5 sacks last year and he’s considered highly successful. Jason Hatcher had 4.5.

Stephen Bowen whom we let walk for a bag of peanuts got 6 sacks last year, playing a 34DE. Stephen Bowen statistically outperformed JJ Watt. Dallas can get very good players playing DL late in the draft, we just let them walk for nothing.

If Dallas fixes its secondary, like Houston did last year, our Defensive Line players will look a lot better

Dallas has been brutally cheap on it’s own players on the defensive line. Bowen got 5 years 27 million, roughly 5 million a season, to be a starting DE. He’d be the highest paid DE in Dallas if he made that much here. That is an expression of how cheap Dallas has gone at that position

you can't spend it everywhere

I’m just saying, do you think it’s balanced that our highest paid DEs are all around the minimum? Dallas fans complain about the lack of pressure from our DEs, but our management clearly does not care.

Well clearly

since we don’t spend high draft picks on them.

And it's not really fair comparing JJ Watt to Hatcher.

One was a rookie and the other is an older vet.

And when you watched the games, Watt provided a lot more consistent disruption and I believe had like twice the number of tackles. Hatcher was good though, we should have another Hatcher or two.

Hatcher might have had more...

if not the calf injury he suffered in the 49er game.

more what?
sacks...

more tackles is an obvious given.

I guess he could have

he could also not have.

The point remains that I don’t think he provided the consistent pressure we need from the DL. He definitely did better than Spears and Coleman though, so I’m not saying he’s the weak link. We should keep Hatcher in the rotation and really try to upgrade a couple other roster spots on the line.

He two sacks in the niner game...

before he injured his calf. He wasn’t the same player when he came back. He appeared to be on his way to a break out year. I know injuries happen, but I liked what I saw out of him during the first couple of games…moreso than previous seasons.

and i liked what I saw from him up to that point than in previous years.

He wasn’t the same when he came back from it…he got better towards the end of the year, but not like the niner game.

You're right, but I think that would be a good place to spend.

Considering that the LOS battle is one of the if not the most important battle a team must win to succeed. Also I believe we can all agree that a stout d-line and o-line probably has the most impact to the success of an offense and defense. Consider last year for example, Romo was sacked 36 +/- times and was hit and pressured countless others you think if he had more time we could’ve been more successful. Our running backs really couldn’t run well unless we had the extra blocking Fiametta provided. On the other side of the ball how many times did the opposing teams QB evade our outside pass rush by simply stepping up into the pocket due to the lack of an inside pass rush. I like having great skill position players, but hey without good line play they will always be limited. If games are won and lost in the trenches then why not invest your money there?

DCB isn't kinda funny how fans like u & myself can

see where the games are lost & won but yet the so called “GM” has a hard time grasping that little fact… Jerry invest in ur lines damn it. U finally spend a 1st rd pick on a tackle n look how well Tron turned out, now do the same w/ the interior or get a big nt.

I do not understand it either, it's not a secret! It's mentioned over and over in so many forums yet it is so often neglected.
Well, also keep in mind Dallas was trying to come in under the cap to make up for the cap hit from cutting players.

If Dallas hadn’t gone cheap last year, this year would have been a complete disaster.

yeah that made it tough

At the beginning of the season, I didn't think Bowen was worth it

but he got better and better as the season wore on and absolutely tore it up. I was on the Skins site and they were talking about how he had a tragic loss in his family earlier in the year and that resulted in him not being able to focus. I was really wrong about Bowen. I wish we tried harder to keep him.

We didn't let Bowen walk for a bag of peanuts.
Hindsight is 20/20...But would you rather have?

Bowen @ 5yr/27million

OR

Spears @ 5yr/19million

Bowen @ 5yr/17 million

Wrong answer.

Bowen @ 5.4mil/yr

Or

Spears @ 3.84mil/yr

Can I pick neither?
I think the only reason

Spears got that high of a deal is because we had literally no DE’s signed once things got moving again. So they had to sign him and hatcher as fast as possible once Bowen had been signed.

haha.

Unfortunately no.

Someone has to play DE.
Yeah, but Spears only got like $4-5 million guaranteed.

And in the first 2 years on that contract, he will get paid $5 million, thus covering his guaranteed portion. Compared this to Bowen’s roughly $12 million guaranteed that doesn’t get paid out tell after his 4th year in the contract.

I take it back

In his first 2 years, Spears is paid 2 million each year (so 4 million his first 2 years) and has a guarantee of $4.2 million. All the same, after the 2013 year, Dallas should be able to cut if with a minimal impact to the cap while only paying him $4 million for those 2 years of service. That gives Dallas 2 years to find/groom his replacement.

that’s sound management. I dont think you can find fault in that, we got a guy we knew his skills, and paid him accordingly. And he STILL underproduced.

are you saying that only if it was a bag of peanuts he woud have been worth considering.

He did’t get top pay either, not like canty money, imo he would have been worth it. 25 mil +/- over 5 yrs, not bad.

If it was a bag of peanuts, yes.

He wasn’t going to be worth it for us. Not with his signing bonus. You spend that money re-signing Bowen and we have less to spend on other areas of the team. Right now, I want that money to go towards the secondary.

I would have taken

Bowen over Coleman easily but I believe at the time Dallas had other concerns and didn’t have much money to play with remeber we had no fs at all on the roster and knew we needed corner help also. They let him walk cause they didn’t have a choice. If it had happens this year we would have kept him for sure.

JJ Watt had a muuuuuuuuuch better year than Stephen Bowen...

But you have to look at much more than sacks:

According to ProFootballFocus:

Bowen had:
4 hits, 13 pressures and 29 stops

vs.

Watt, who had:
11 hits, 30 pressures and 49 stops.

Short answer is that you can’t look at one statistic, regardless of how many fantasy points you can receive for it. Hatcher put up nearly the same statistics as Bowen on 1/2 as many snaps, for a much better year at a more reasonable cost. Football is a business and money does play a role. As DalaiLuke mentions above, you can’t spend it everywhere.

It's easy to write off Costa and Parnell ...

and the average “realist” here would include Arkin and Nagy and say we need three O-Line replacements. I’m betting we get at least one, maybe two from this crew. If we can get one more good year from Kosier, and a solid FA starter, that would take the pressure off drafting an immediate starter. I’d love to see us get two starting O-lineman from the draft, but that’s just dreaming.

Kosier tore his MCL the last game. I doubt he plays next year.
Occ what is this cieling you see from Holley?

He currently hasnt missed a catch and plays his heart out on STs. What I have seen is a serious lack of use for one that doesnt put the ball on the ground. I know we don’t use a lot of 4 WR sets but I think with the talent we have there we probably should. Maybe I’m missing something though it happens.

I think he keeps sticking

Holley has that Bill Bates tenacity

Holley's ceiling

are the 53 snaps (26 of which came against SF in week 2) he got from his coaches this season, and that despite the two starters missing significant time with injuries. After three years with the team, the coaches have seen all they’ll ever see from Holley and they trusted him for no more than 53 snaps. There is no upside for Holley anymore.

Or let me answer your question with another question: What do you think Holley can do from now until the start of next season that will convince the coaches to give him significantly more playing time?

Indeed.

Furthermore, the best play of Holley’s career thus far, the OT catch in SF, was a telling moment. Maybe I’m being too critical, but a guy that really deserves more snaps would have scored instead of being caught on the one.

If they don't get Robinson under contract

And Holley has a better camp than the likes of Radway, Holmes and Harris, he can be the third WR.

I personally think that Robinson should be retained, but it only takes one team to pay him like a #2 for him to leave. And right now the rest of the guys are all on equal footing.

Radway mayvbe

Our diamond in the rough I’m hoping he can be used as a return man. He has the speed but I haven’t seen enough to judge his vision on the field. A return man would do more for this team than running a 4 wide set. If he can be that guy I’d love it.

To me what he lacks most is speed.

He got caught in OT at the what 1-2 yard line shoulda been able to make a td, after catching that in stride. I guess what I’m failing most to see is his age at 28 he probably isnt gonna get much faster. However I can’t get past him not dropping any passes it just screams use me more. I don’t know though I’m not at tc or practice like they are, but come on Ogletree over him I for one dont get it.

send him to Michael Johnson, fast
I think it is pretty simple...

Ogletree runs better routes and gets better separation. Holley may catch the ball better (OK, a lot better), but if he can’t get open, it doesn’t matter.

Now God help us if we don’t re-sign Robinson and can’t find somebody who can run routes and catch the ball.

Lol every catch Holley made he was in fact open
Kosier is done

MCL tear in last game and at his age forget it.
Parnell maybe

Anyone watching Costa and thinking he could ever be more then mediocre is drunk or on drugs.

I think he can be more than mediocre...
...(hiccup)
I hate the hiccups

You better hold your breath. Your drink water upside down(how do you even do that?)

Breathe into a paper sack

Slows your heart down a bit and gets it back on the normal beat pattern.

bologna!

No one knows what causes Hiccups haha.

Spoonful of peanut butter cures it every time.
DL is a joke

Canty is NOT worth what they paid him. Not even close. A couple of good games in 3 years ain’t worth that kind of money.

Bowen is nothing special and not worth his contract.

Our drafting has sucked there. One difference maker- JUST ONE.

Agreed on Canty.

I don’t see what he does to warrant his contract. Bowen, though, provides some pretty good pressure. A pass rushing DE in a 3-4 is worth the roughly 5-6mil a year that he gets. I’d also disagree on your comment above concerning Costa. Sure, he didn’t look like much. He seemed to improve as the season went on. He’s young. I don’t think he should be relied on to start, but he could be valuable as a backup.

Also, Concerning Costa sounds like a pretty alright band name.

Bowen could be worth 5-6 mil a year, unfortunately we couldn't pay him that last year.
I heard his name once in the Super Bowl...

and once in the 49er game on a personal foul penalty. You can whine all you want about not keeping Canty…but the Cowboys were smart not to overpay him. He wasn’t that impressive here.

I mean...you in general...i'm not putting words in your mouth...sorry.
Ha. It's cool. I gotcha. We agree.
agreed, Canty is definitely not worth it

wish we kept Bowen though. Didn’t think he would be as good as he has been for the Skins

yeah Costa improved

he went from Putrid to just bad

That's still an upgrade and a reason for hope...

A reason to keep him? Different conversation all together.

Good stuff OCC..

The first thing that came to mind as I read your intro (teaser) was how would 2011 effect these players. Not only the 2010 players but the rookies from last year and if your really going by this equation the few we have left from 2009. Mainly Im referring to the lockout.

Will we see any residual effect from the lockout on the players from the years I mentioned. If these first few years are so critical will the lack of preseason stunt said growth? Also will a full offseason help last years crop of rookies that much more?

My theory is that the full off season will help a lot.

And I’m sticking to it (until proven otherwise).

This offseason excuse is wearing thin

It was only the Beginning of April to June. 3 months. Trying to use that as an excuse for much of anything by the end of the season is BS.

For young players that's quite a bit

You saw the improvements that Tron, Lee, Lissemore, and even Costa made toward the end of the season. Of course the regression that Newman and Kosier saw just about wiped out all of that.

it truly was sad watching

newman/kosier’s play spiral downwards @ the end of the yr, its a shame really cause both players were solid in their prime.

Out of those

I’d say the only person ready to be a starter is Brent just because he’s younger and it will preserve Rats career. I don’t think we can draft an NT ready to go and I don’t think they’ll want to buy an NT in FA with looking at the secondary and offensive line.

Parnell is a really interesting project and I’m really hoping for the guy. Lissy, McCray, and Church are killer backups and hope they will get the opportunity to progress but I don’t see any of them really becoming solid starters. Those types of guys we need to we just don’t need them in the starters position.

I think you can swap Lissy and Brent

I think Lissemore is ready to get a lot of snaps at NT and rotate in at DE at times. Brent can be backup.

Lissy seems to have a knack for the ball

He holds his ground good and always moves toward the ball that’s one thing I like about him. I’ve seen alot of young DL that have good fight to them at the line but they don’t always move toward the ball. Lisse has a way of progressing to where the ball is at all times. Looked pretty good at shedding blockers in the run game and has more than a bull rush move to him. Doesn’t get as low as I would like to see him but I think that comes.from Ratliff. Ratliff doesn’t always get low he gets sideways and skinny but it worked for him Lisse has taken some of this from Ratliff and he play time to perfect his skills. He should see double the snap count next year.

Not drafted by us

But I believe Robert Callaway was also a 2010 pick that could probably be on that list too isn’t he?

Lissssyyyymore is ready to break out and be a force on the D-Line
Lissy & Church to start

Would love to see Lissy & Church become starters. Praying that Robinson is affordable and sticks with us? I also look at Holley as a poor mans Patrick Crayton 3rd down possession receiver. Ogletree has to go now!

Now is the time for our Coaches to look deep into our roster

Why is it that our coaches don’t seem to figure out our young players can play until the vet gets hurt? ie: Miles Austin for R.Williams – Demarco Murray for Felix Jones and etc. I would think the Coaches see these guys everyday and should be a lot more knowledgeable than us? Is it only about money???

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