Strangely enough, this is my favorite time of the NFL season. I spend more time reading Chia's posts and evaluating players than I do working. As such, the blog bug bit me this morning and I'm ready for a second attempt a blueprint for a successful off-season.
Here's what we are factoring in so we're all on the same page. Since many of the readers on this site actively view Drafttek.com, their latest mock is the one we will use for this post. Also, we're gonna roll with best guesstimate of 20MM in cap space after Newman is cut.
And finally, we are gonna assume Dre Kirkpatrick is gone by #14 despite that not being the current status on Drafttek. Here we go!
Cuts - I'm not gonna spend time on Newman, he's gone. What I haven't heard much demand for is letting Kenyon Coleman go. He has a 1.9M cap figure for 2012 and with Spears, Hatcher, Lissemore, Brent, Geathers, and J-Rat signed, it would seem plausible if not logical to cut Coleman and save some cash there. Going through the roster I don't see many other players we could cut to save cap space. Maybe Kosier at 2.25M next year but Jerry is gonna have to make some moves on the line for that to make sense. OK, add 1.9M to the available cap, let's move on to free agency.
Free Agency - The list of potential free agents has been discussed exhaustively on here. The CB, G, and DE positions have the most depth and fill needs for the Boys so let's start there.
Carl Nicks - Best guard in the NFL in my book. Only question is how much will he cost.
Ben Grubbs - Plays RG (position of need), I would rather have Nicks but if we can't get him Grubbs is a nice substitute.
Ladarius Webb - Love this kid and wanted Jerry to draft him as a rookie.
Brandon Carr - Plan B in the event we can't sign Webb.
Any combination of two of these guys (including Nicks and Grubbs) would greatly benefit the Boys and set us up nicely for the draft. I don't think signing a DE is necessary though I really like Kendall Langford, Jason Jones, and Red Bryant.
Draft - . I'm of the belief that we have more holes than draft picks...Jerry likes to play the board...Hmm, this may work.
Since we are starting the draft with Dre Kirkpatrick and Coples off the board, let's examine who is left at #14:
Mark Barron, Dontari Poe, Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry, Janoris Jenkins, Peter Konz, David DeCastro, Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram.
Obviously we could use any of these guys so a trade down makes sense.
Trade: Dallas sends #14 to the Bengals for #17 and #84.
Trade: Dallas sends #17 to the Browns for #22 and #68.
Pick: With the 22nd pick, Dallas selects Dontari Poe NT from Memphis.
Pick: With the 45th pick, Dallas selects Markelle Martin FS from Oklahoma State. (Minnifield if he's there)
Pick: With the 68th pick, Dallas selects Vinny Curry OLB from Marshall.
Pick. With the 82nd pick, Dallas selects Jon Massaquoi OLB from Troy.
Pick: With the 84th pick, Dallsa selects Kevin Zeitler G from Wisconsin.
Pick. With the 113th pick, Dallas selects Mike Brewster G/C from Ohio State.
Pick. With the 144th pick, Dallas selects Dwight Bentley CB from Louisiana-Lafayette.
Pick. With the 175th pick, Dallas selects Nicolas Jean-Baptiste NT from Baylor.
Pick. With the 206th pick, Dallas selects IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.
So, assuming a Guard and Cornerback in free agency, we have a new Nose Tackle moving Ratliff to RE, Markelle Martin competing for the starting FS spot, Curry, Butler, and Massaquoi fighting for the stating LOLB spot and providing depth behind the eventual starter, Zeitler, Brewster, Arkin, and Nagy as depth/competing for starting spot on the O-line, and Bentley and Baptiste as fingers crossed depth.
Please share your thoughts, no one is 100% accurate on where they will go in the draft but this seems pretty legit. Hope you enjoyed.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
1 recs | 31 comments
If you are successful signing Webb
you will lose your first round pick, #14, because he is a RFA.
sgitr - February 21, 2012
Hmmm...
Not sure how I missed that but you’re right
NFLBigBoard - February 22, 2012
Draft Issues
Just looking through the draft, I see a few issues. Martin at 45 is way too high. He’ll be around in the 3rd. Curry at 68 is way too low. He’ll be gone somewhere around our pick at 45. Zeitler at 84 isn’t even close. He’s arguably the 3rd best OG and likely to be gone in the 2nd.
I don’t understand why you have back-to-back OLBs. Seems like wasting a pick because one is going to win and the other is going to sit. I’d think that pick would be better utilized picking up an ILB.
inwittenitrust - February 21, 2012
No proble on the olb,s besides where
Proxy406 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
I hate iphones...
As i was say no prob on olbs. Curry pick is hopefull but wouldnt be shocked to see us double dip. Hedge out bets if one misses. I’d rather chandler jones the mass. But thats personal preference. Zeitler will absoltely go in 2nd maybe even before 45. I’d also like to see a second corner in this scenerio as well as a mid round ilb.
Also in your above your letting robinson fiametta and holland walk. And to a lessor extent martellus with out replacing any of them
Proxy406 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
turn off the auto correct, it helps ALOT
yehti - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Speculation....
I appreciate your thoughts, but the fact is you have no idea where each guy is gonna be drafted. We can all guess, but don’t call me out for a second or third round pick that may or may not be 10-15 spots too high or low. No one saw Dez slipping to us, Alualu going in the Top 15, Spiller going to the Bills at #9, John Carpenter going to Seattle at 25, Ponder @ #12, etc. Things happen man, don’t be that guy cause I GUARANTEE your mock draft is wrong.
NFLBigBoard - February 22, 2012
....the reply above was meant for inwittenitrust
NFLBigBoard - February 22, 2012
Curry would be a DE for us
he would need to bulk up or play in 4-3 sets.
ziggy19 - February 21, 2012
Why?
Curry is about the same size as Spencer. Playing 34DE doesn’t make any sense. He’s a perfect size for 34OLB.
inwittenitrust - February 21, 2012
Curry would absolutely not be a 3-4 de.
Proxy406 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
I like the picks but agree swapping your second and third picks is more realistic
I’d probably grab one of the corners with the second or third picks. But overall I like your draft picks.
Also grabbing two of those free agents is likely not possible. Maybe consider Mathis for a cheaper guard pickup? And Terrell Thomas for a cheaper corner p/u? Also a great center pickup might be Todd McClure on a one year contract.
livemontana - February 21, 2012
$3.2M
Releasing DL Coleman at $1..9M and K Buelher at $1.3 would give us another $3.2M in cap.
I’d take this money and sign WR Robinson. Should pay most of his $3.5-$4.0 salary +/-
Pasipple - February 21, 2012
i like that scenario
yehti - February 21, 2012 via mobile
love it
Coleman’s play was pretty meh towards the end of the season. Gotta let him go. Can’t believe Buehler makes that much too
somebodyquiet - February 21, 2012
Don't like the trade down idea
at 14 we can get a stud, get the stud player every time you can
Nardfather - February 21, 2012
already posted this
but Nicks was on XM saying he wants more money then Evans got 2 years ago. might as well as look at other alternatives.
the draft i like alot, i really want DeCastro and if JJ gets fancy with trade backs it could back fire real quick.
yehti - February 21, 2012 via mobile
EXCELLENT FORMAT, BAD PICKS
I love the moving back twice and getting picks. Of the picks only Poe and Brewster are good. Minniefield would be my guy around 45 and I would use a later pick to move up a couple of spots if necessary. I also would prefer Iloka at FS.
For whoever commented on it, NO WAY is Zeitler the 3rd best OG in this draft. He was owned by several at the Senior Bowl.
As far as FA goes- I would not even think about Nicks. Just plain too expensive and would wreck the cap. I do like the idea of cutting Coleman and Buehler and using that money to retain Robinson.
faniva - February 21, 2012
Hamilton-DT,Mizzou is my 7th rd pick,unless he blows up the combine.
Raf had a great write-up about him.It only made me want him more. Thanks for the effort,not a bad view of things.If things went that way I would not be unhappy,but I want to stay at #14 and don’t want any part of Nicks($$$).
NVCowboy4Life - February 21, 2012
The BEST FA's are gonna be franchised......except for.......
Dolphins Probowler NT Paul Soliai. He was franchised last year and it would be WAYYYYYY to costly to franchise him again. Drafting D. Poe or Alameda Ta’amu may be a crap-shoot (i.e. too many unknowns) in terms of their availablity on Draft day and even whether they’re talented enough (size-speed ratio) to succeed in the NFL as an elite NT.
I’m also NOT a fan of trading back to Pick#15 thru #17 unless Jerrah has guarantees from those three teams to NOT pick HIS guy)!!!! As in most DRAFTS, there will be surprises and a very talented player (ranked high on our Draft Board) may fall to us at Pick#14 and Pick #45!!!!
It’s the 3rd Round that I’m worried about since we need another STUD RB to provide starting-quality depth behind Demarco Murray if he goes down again. I, personally, like Terrance Ganaway who is six foot one inch and weight 241 lbs. Incredibly, he ran for 21 TDs and rushed for 1,547 yds. I know other teams want him badly. If we got him in the 3rd Rd, we’d have our own version of Brandon Jacobs (Ganaway) and Ahmad Bradshaw (DeMarco Murray). Every thing else is gravy!!!
Pacerman - February 21, 2012
Not to be rude...
But I just read your post on Jerry. I am now dumber for doing so and may God have mercy on your soul. Seriously though, you gotta stop with the ALL CAPS buddy, we’re all adults, we get what you’re saying without the extra emphasis and you’ve been called out for it numerous times on here.
It seems like you’re an avid fan of Madden type scenarios so let me ask you this…Who the heck would promise Jerry anything in the draft if he decided to move down a few spots and who is “his guy” that you speak of?
Now, I know you’re high on Soliai, but c’mon, if you look at our cap space, the deal it’s gonna take to get him, and what’s available to us in the draft, it makes no sense to sign him. Surefire NTs don’t exist, especially in free agency. This whole thing is a crap shoot and guys like Suh come out about once every 25 years. I agree it would benefit our defense greatly, which is why I mocked him to us at 22, but passing on a guy like Poe because of “too many unknowns” just doesn’t make sense based on your statements. If there’s someone else better, you bet, but not for the reasons you laid out.
Aside from Luck, no one knows who is going where on draft day (see Tyson Jackson 2009). So shying away from what could be a dominant NT cause you “just don’t know” is really just another way of saying I have no idea what I’m typing but it sounds good to me. Also, drop the “elite” tag when referencing a players potential. Elite is Aaron Rodgers, Suh, Peterson, etc…very few and far between and every team in the league has players that are average but do their jobs and help their team win. If you could only get by on drafting “STUDS” and “ELITE” players, we wouldn’t have a league at all, we’d have 50-60 guys in a room.
Finally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jerry drafted some positions we’re not expecting but HB in the 3rd seems illogical. We have needs at G, C, backup across the o-line, CB, FS, SS, ILB, OLB, NT, QB…HB in the 3rd, really? I’m a firm believer that HBs need to stay in the game to get in rhythm and an 80/20 split is the most effective. No way we go HB with so many other pressing needs and so many HBs available in free agency later on.
Your enthusiasm is applauded, but your recommendations are highly questionable. Read Chia’s posts on these subjects if you want to educate yourself, he’s as good as anyone on here….
NFLBigBoard - February 22, 2012
Since you got all 'cramped up' about Ganaway......here's my take on what Jerrah really should do.....
1. Free Agency: NT Paul Soliai (6’4" 355lbs) will impact the Rush Defense, Pass Rush, and Pass Defense. If we use a 6 man DL rotation, they’ll be fresh for the entire game. The Dolphins defense used this and allowed 2.9 run avg going into their Dec 17th game.
2. Round 1: OG Decastro will likely be gone but another blue-chipper OL may drop to us. If not, OT Mike Adams (6’7" 323lbs) or OG Cordy Glenn (6’5" 345lbs) should be there; need someone who can play both OT and/or OG. Note: If B. Callahan determines that OT Arkin or OG Nagy have progressed dramatically to play OG, they may even draft Wisconsin (Lineman Univ) Center, Peter Konz. (6’5" 314lbs) to compete with (short-armed) Phi Costa for the starting Center job.
3. Round 2: CB Tramaine Johnson (6’2" 204lbs/4.40 on a good day) is a big CB will be there but he needs to prove his long speed at the Combine. If we want a speed CB to matchup with WR Sean Jackson & other blazers, Asa Jackson (4.30), Brandon Boykins (4.35), C. Judie (4.38) are among several others. And, we still have practice squad CB Mario Butler (6’1" 183lbs) who had a poor Combine last year (4.65) . While he lacks long speed, he’s effective in Zone schemes (but would announce it with his presence on the field).
3a. Round 3: Speed kills in this league. It won’t happen but I’d pull the trigger on one of these proven RBs. Doug Martin (5’9" 219lbs) runs a 4.38 and Isaiah Pead (5’9" 193lbs) can run even faster at 4.32!!! Chris Polk is slightly bigger at 5’10" 224lbs and can run a 4.34!!! We need a RB that can carry the load if Demarco goes down or to tag-team with Demarco like Ahmad Bradshaw tag-teams with Brandon Jacobs. While I personally like Terrance Ganaway (5’11" 241lbs) from Baylor, he’ll probably be available in the 4th RD.
3b. Round 3: They’ll probably pick SS Harrison Smith (6’2" 212/4.46 speed) if he’s there and Elam is not resigned. If not, OLB Jonathan Massaquoi (6’2" 250lbs / 4.66 speed) has serious upside and may be the pick.
Pacerman - February 24, 2012
We not getting Nicks yall can forget about it.
Like you idea about trading back. I would hope that better players fall to us because of it. I don’t like Poe watching his tape he isn’t the 1st rd instant impact guy we really need on Defense
djthumpl - February 21, 2012
Trading Down !
90% of the time a good plan.
I understand the desire for Poe, who will play CB and G ??
Seriously doubt we can compete for Carr or even Grubbs. We can’t fight the teams with money to burn.
If we cannot trade down (no partners), then I’d considering sacrificing #14 for Webb, if HE wants to come here.
the_hat - February 21, 2012
Curry and Zeitler will be long gone
by the time you said we should draft them. I don’t like trading down. If Ingram or DeCastro is there, you have to draft him. By trading down, you are passing on a better player and settling for a player rated lower on your board. Stay put at 14 and draft the BPA.
Hank Hill - February 22, 2012
what bout spencer>
will he be signed?
cowboys fan living in new york! - February 22, 2012
I would hope Wayne Dorsey
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profilexnews.php?pyid=106914&draftyear=2012&genpos=DE
Jonathan Stern - February 22, 2012
I'm really not dissuaded yet about Jerrah signing NT Paul Soliai......
Yes, he ’s expensive but worth it. Jerrah and Stephen only need to figure out the dynamics and get it done. Pro-Bowler, NT, Paul Soliai IS a proven product (and relatively YOUNG at age 28) versus drafting unproven NT rookies D. Poe or Alameda Ta’amu .
Bottom Line: Until we find a stud NT to push the pocket (and not some weak blob or wannabe NT), we will NOT be as effective with our Run Defense, Pass Rush, or Secondary coverages. I hear some posters saying that a NT’s job is to be run stuffer only because they don’t get Sacks….well, yes and no!!!! Their job on Pass plays is to CREATE sacks for others by pushing the pocket so our pass rushing DEs, pass rushing Outside LB’ers, and Secondary guys can make the BIG PLAYS!!!
Additionally, by signing Soliai, this would allow Dallas to draft the best available OL or DL prospect at Pick #14. I don’t SEE an elite CB with 4.3 speed that would be available at Pick #14 but I do SEE top-notch OTs/OGs that would have cost Jerrah a small fortune in previous drafts or what did cost him when he resigned Doug Free or what will cost him when Tyron Smith’s rookie deal is expired!!!
I also SEE pretty good CBs in the 2nd Rd that could compete with practice squad CB Mario Butler for a starting job either at T-New’s old spot or Scandrick’s spot (if he moves to T-New’s spot). In Rd 3, I see a stud RB named Terrance Ganaway who’s 6’1" & 241lbs with speed and power. This RB ran for 1,547 yds and scored 21 TDs last year at Baylor. Need a first down on 3rd and short or TD on goal-line or someone to step-in if Demarco Murray goes down again……he’s your MAN!!! In Rds 4-6, we grab the BPA to fill our KEY depth positions.
Sounds like a plan…..
Pacerman - February 23, 2012
their not taking a rb in the draft lol
IRONRAVEN - February 24, 2012
Talented players with great speed rule in this league.....
It won’t happen but I’d pull the trigger on one of these proven RBs. Doug Martin (5’9" 219lbs) runs a 4.38 and Isaiah Pead (5’9" 193lbs) can run even faster at 4.32!!! Chris Polk is slightly bigger at 5’10" 224lbs and can run a 4.34!!! We need a RB that can carry the load if Demarco goes down or to tag-team with Demarco like Ahmad Bradshaw tag-teams with Brandon Jacobs. While I personally like Terrance Ganaway (5’11" 241lbs) from Baylor, he should be available in the 4th RD.
Pacerman - February 24, 2012
Make a wish
Mine is that something bad happens that drops Claiborne down to #14. WON’T HAPPEN, but hey, I reserve the right to have outrageous hopes, lol.
I don’t support the idea of trading down unless you can’t decide which guy you like most. If you have a lot of guys you like fairly equally at a spot then it makes sense to try to trade down since you don’t have a guy you REALLY want. However, if Decastro is there, I don’t think there is anyone the Cowboys will like more or even close to him out of those players listed.
ProBowlFactory - February 23, 2012
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