SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Blogging The Boys

Dallas Cowboys Wishlist: Divisional Round Edition

Last week, after the wildcard games, I penned a post in which I looked at one aspect of each of the eight teams I would like to see in or on the Cowboys in 2012 and beyond. I planned on crafting another, similar post after watching this weekend's divisional round, but one team in particular caught my eye, to such a degree that I thought it merited further, and singular, examination: the San Francisco 49ers.

When it has been pointed out in recent weeks that the Cowboys have a rookie head coach and that, as a result, there is an expected learning curve, the impatient among us have countered with the 49ers as exhibit A: they, too, have a rookie HC, Jim Harbaugh, yet they made the playoffs, even securing the NFC's second seed. And, as things played out, they will end up hosting the NFC championship game. To make matters worse for Cowboys fans, the 49ers were a "bad team" that had ranged from mediocre to terrible for several years (the last time they were above .500 was 2002). So, the argument ran, Harbaugh managed to completely "turn around" the organization; this morning on the Norm Hitzges radio show, I heard someone say he had "the Midas touch."

Apparently, Harbaugh is a magician and Garrett isn't; the 'Niners win and Cowboys lose the HC hiring game. But wait, there's more to the story that this. I'd like to begin by turning to a fascinating blog post that appeared last week on Pro Football Reference. The author, "Doug," asked, "how are good teams built?" Searching for answers, he looked at NFL teams from 1980-2006, and divvied them up into good (10+ wins), average (7-9 wins) and bad (6 or fewer wins). For each, he broke down the roster two ways: first, by the round in which players were drafted; second, whether they were home-grown (i.e., drafted by the team they were playing for) or acquired from another team.

The numbers, as you'll see if you hit the linky above, are interesting. For most teams, the numbers were very close (all three levels average 3.8-3.9 second rounders on the roster, for example). There are subtle trends: the better teams have slightly more high-round draftees on the roster. In recent years (which, for this study, means 2000-2006), however, this skews more clearly, allowing Doug to reach the following conclusion: "the good teams are starting more first round picks than the bad teams, but it's not first round players they acquired from other teams, it's their own first round picks." In short, the better teams have managed to accumulate more elite-level talent.

Some cool tables and rabblicious concusions after the jump...

Star-divide

With this in mind, lets take a look at the Cowboys and 49ers rosters, focusing on players who were drafted in rounds 1-3. San Francisco first:

Homegrown 1st Rounders Homegrown 2nd Rounders Homegrown 3rd Rounders
Alex Smith (’05) Shawntae Spencer Frank Gore
Vernon Davis (’06) Chilo Rachal Adam Snyder
Patrick Willis (’07) Colin Kaepernick Reggie Smith
Joe Staley (’07) NaVorro Bowman
Michael Crabtree (’09) Chris Culliver
Anthony Davis (‘10) Ray McDonald
Mike Iupati (’10)
Aldon Smith (’11)
Imported 1st Rounders Imported 2nd Rounders Imported Third Rounders
Braylon Edwards (Clev) Madieu Williams (Cin) Ahmad Brooks (Cin)
Ted Ginn (Mia) Tavares Gooden (Balt)
Carlos Rogers (Wash)
Justin Smith (Con)
Donte Whitner (Buf)

A few things to note here: 1) The 'Niners boast 25 players, over half of their game-day roster, drafted in the "premium" rounds; 2) the most impressive aspect of this: 13 first rounders on the roster; 3) other than 2008, they have done very well in round one; 4) they have done a masterful job acquiring top-level talent initially drafted by traditionally bad clubs (Cleveland, Cincy, Buffalo, Washington), guys who likely underperformed because they didn't have good coaching or weren't surrounded by loads of talent; 5) as a result of their talent-acquisition philosophy, they have only 9 UDFAs on the roster, five of whom are rookies.

Now lets look at the Cowboys' talent base:

Homegrown 1st Rounders Homegrown 2nd Rounders Homegrown 3rd Rounders
Terence Newman (’03) Martellus Bennett Jason Witten
DeMarcus Ware (’05) Sean Lee Jason Hatcher
Marcus Spears (’05) Bruce Carter DeMarco Murray
Anthony Spencer (’07)
Felix Jones (’08)
Mike Jenkins (‘08)
Dez Bryant (’10)
Tyron Smith (’11)
Imported 1st Rounders Imported 2nd Rounders Imported Third Rounders
Keith Brooking (Atl) Derrick Dockery (Wash)
Laurent Robinson (Atl)

Dallas has as many homegrown first rounders on the roster, eight, as San Francisco does. The key difference is the amount of imported first rounders San Fran has brought on board. A few other takeaways: 1) at least four (and as many as six) of these players won't be on the roster in 2012 (I've placed lines through these player's names; 3) the 'Niners have acquired much more talent along the offensive and defensive lines (7 big uglies to 3), a fact that oundly was in evidence on Saturday, as they beat the Saints along the lines; 4) the Cowboys have 19 UDFAs on the roster, seven of whom are rookies.

This last observation is telling. Both teams have roughly equitable numbers of premium homegrown picks on their respective rosters. The key lies in importing elite talent: where the 'Niners have brought in 5 first-rounders from other teams, Dallas has only the aging Keith Brooking, who wasn't a starter in 2011 (and wouldn't have been on a reasonably deep roster). Thus, the roster spots San Francisco has filled with premium draft pick-level talent are filled in Dallas by UDFAs (and I'm not talking about Romo and Austin here, but the likes of Barry Church and Phil Costa). Want to know why the 'Niners are playing next weekend with a chance to fight for a sixth Lombardi and the Cowboys are watching the tournament from home? Look no further than this disparity.

By extension: want to know why Harbaugh had a Midas touch? Its because he inherited a really freakin' talented roster (particularly alng the lines) that had been growing up under previous coaches Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary and became fully-fledged in 2011. Before we condemn Garrett for failing to achieve what Harbaugh has, let's give him a similarly talented roster, a front seven that can take over games, an elite running game, and an offensive line that can dominate in the fourth quarter.

3 recs  |  246 comments

Comments

this:
By extension: want to know why Harbaugh had a Midas touch? Its because he inherited a really freakin’ talented roster (particularly along the lines)

nuff said

yep

that roster has loads of talent on it.

Since 2008 all we have heard is how talented this roster is.

As good as the Cowboys are at finding undrafted players that become good players they are just as bad at picking players in the draft. Felix is just a bust. Jenkins to me was too small. Would have never traded Fasano so no Bennett.

Last night was a good night for my drafting record. 3 of the 4 players I wanted in that 2008 draft were helping their teams get to championship games. Phillips, Manningham and Rice. Deshaun was the other but once I saw him go to the EaglesI wanted Manningham bad in the third. Which is right when Jerry dropped out of the third. Hello Roy Willams and good bye 2009 draft.

Put those three players on our team and we might have appeared in one of those the last three years.

Make the moves JJ has and you might have blew the opportunity to put your team over the top and may have made mistakes this current group of Cowboys will never be able to recover from.

Far as the coach. I’ll say it again. He’s not new. He’s been here. How all of a sudden can he change the whole attitude of this team when he’s been here for years. I would say certain things like clock management and simple things like having the FG team ready has gotten worst under him. Where was the discipline he was supposed to install ever been seen on this offense or even his playcalling which in the past has been questionable.

Harbaugh is a better coach. Period. You put JG on that team this year and they aren’t where there at. One person can inspire a lot. Harbaugh has got that. Now he may burn out quickly because he’s an emotional guy but you can’t deny what he’s done with that team. Without ever meeting one of them before the start of camp this year. ’

JG has been here for years.

Our last

First, second, and third, Smith, Carter, and Murray says the Garrett influence has the arrow pointing up!

you're giving JG credit for Smith, Carter and Murray??

poor JJ….he gets one draft right and people want to give the credit to Garrett…

no, the main credit

Goes to jerry and the scouts but some credit goes to the guys that fight for their kinda guys.

and these are Garrett's kinda guys???

you know this how??

because Garrett signs off on any player acquired on the team

If you listened carefully last year you would know this

Exactly JJ sais no player or coach will be on the team unless JG approves. That to me says volumes and is the only hope for the future.

Let’s hope atavism doesn’t strike it’s ugly head and JJ reverts to his old badhabits.

And basic logic.

Everyone knows that JG was the guy behind greatly overhauling our Offensive Line.

yup

He played with the 1990s teams. He knew the secret to their success was the offensive line.

Man,

How are you not a GM or something in the NFL. I mean seriously.. Youre so right about EVERYTHING!

see sig
just in case I missed the sarcasm font

The only “perfect” science is hindsight…… Lock n Load

who hasn't been able to give that to his coach?

the GM

so are we entirely dismissing the notion that Harbaugh might be a better coach than JG?
That might very well be true...

Considering his experience and success as the head guy at Stanford. This fantastic article is just stating that the chasm between a 2 seed/NFC championship berth and a .500 record is more than just the coaches. Plus can anyone see the fiery Harbaugh brothers working for Jerry? No way in Hell!

So are you saying

The harbaughs couldn’t live up to expectations, our perform under pressure in Dallas? Glad we don’t have them, then.

I strongly strongly strongly disagree with that theory
Just seems like "luck" and good coaching are being confused.

San Francisco’s turnover ratio should regress considerably. Alex Smith’s good moments have been no more impressive, nor frequent, than McGee’s. His typical play is that of a scared, below average starter whose worst fear is turning the ball over. I don’t know that he’s as good as Flacco.

Crediting Harbaugh for a great defense would be like crediting Eli for his D Line. The Ha rbaugh offenses haven’t been impressive. The Tebow spread is more effective than their schemes.

Harbaugh is roughly equivalent to Pete Caroll. I don’t think his team will end up much better than Seattle, despite them each winning a playoff game.

wow.

facts suck, huh?

Context?

They’ve got more wins against lesser competition while playing, statistically, very similarly to how they did last year.

So, this is the same team, sucking/succeeding on the same level as last year’s 49ers, except this time they’re going against the weakest schedule in the league, and benefiting from the biggest lucky streak since the Saints Super Bowl team.

wow.

You love excuses.

When you don’t want to just face something, there’s always an excuse.

What would a drill sergeant say about your analysis?

Never met a drill sergeant.

And my drill instructors were more concerned with teaching us to kill than football. What you call an excuse, I call evidence.

Does it bother you that my outlook doesn’t default to the worst possible scenario?

no, I just see a guy who sees things one way for his team but differently for another.

Well, look, the odds you and I are going to agree is about as much as the politicians this Fall, so I’ll drop it.

Nope

Last year Garrett looked like he was in over his head. Unskilled play calling, poor game management, bad end game clock management: “We were within field goal range” at Arizona.

The skill level Harbaugh has shown is impressive. At the beginning of the season, most everyone here was counting the game against San Francisco as a win because of their persistently poor performance, and because we were supposedly turning a corner under a new regime. Now that it’s clear San Francisco was a much better team than us, the explanation is they were really more talented to begin with. That’s strange to me, because outside of Patrick Willis and Frank Gore, most people scoffed at their roster about a year ago.

When we face disappointing outcomes, we reach for reassuring explanations.

this baby.

Harbaugh was twice the coach Garrett was this year, with a lot less experience.

Garrett can only hope at this point to be as good as him.
And, he could be. The light may turn on. But he’s already been in the league and an OC for years, and a HC for a year and a half.

I’m kinda a member of the "Either you have it or you don’t " school, but still JG deserves a few more years.

Coaching Resumes

Jim Harbaugh:
1994-2001: NCAA-certified unpaid assistant coach at Western Kentucky University (This was while Harbaugh was still in the NFL. He helped scout for the college his dad was a coach at).
2002: Offensive Assistant Coach for the Raiders.
2003: QB coach for the Raiders
2004-06: Head coach for the University of San Diego.
2007-10: Head coach at Stanford.
2011-Present: Head coach for the 49ers.

Jason Garrett:
2005-06: QB coach for Miami
2007-10: OC for the Cowboys
2010-Present: Head coach for Dallas.

Realistically, Harbaugh has far more coaching experience than Jason. Harbaugh had his first head coach position before Jason got his first coaching position. I’ll give that most of Harbaugh’s experience is at a college level, but really, you’re going to say Jason has more experience than Harbaugh?

This is a point I've been making for the last year

Jason Garrett simply doesn’t have enough experience coaching, and it shows in his often counterproductive end game decisions. We saw it in Detroit, New England, the Jets and Arizona games. He pulled a similar stunt last year against New Orleans that essentially ended any realistic chance of us winning the game.

Coaches have to juggle tremendous amounts of information to make hundreds of important decisions in the course of a season. The NFL is not the place for on-the-job-training. There’s too much at stake to have a coach figuring out the basics during a season.

Garrett was also being groomed by the Giants for a coaching job prior to 2004
groomed for a coaching job is a far cry from having a coaching job

I love the original point here, Grim

fair points
Thanks. I've seen a lot of people compare Garrett to Payton and Harbaugh, but I don't think it's a fair comparison.

When you compare resumes, Garrett is a relative rookie compared to both Harbaugh and Payton. So, when Garrett makes a rookie mistake, well, maybe it is because he is a rookie. I think Dallas took a bit of a chance with him, but I’m okay with that.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I’ve been a Garrett fan since the 93 Thanksgiving day game. I’m a red head with the last name of Harper. I was 10 when that game was played, and watching the red headed QB throw the ball high and throw it to Harper…well, 10 year old boys are easily amused.

All well stated points

What I read from some here would give the impression that Garrett was completely incompetent and screwed up more play calls than he got right. Probably the expected emotional response to not having a better season, but the truth is, he did very well, but also had some significant mistakes. Hell, Andy Reid gets called out on exactly the same problems people fault Garrett for – clock management, run/pass selection, etc.

Given the overall very positive peformance of the Dallas offense since Garrett came in, I’d say he’s a very good coach with some growth still ahead of him.

Hey, those are fair points. So maybe things will click for garrett and he'll improve over the next 2-3 years.

Or, either you have it or you don’t.
Time will tell.
Harbaugh’s got a couple of years on him.
But the personality differences will never change and for years I’ve wished we could get a guy who was more of a motivator.

And if not, then the Cowboys need more leadership among the players.

No we don't know, but the statement
either you have it or you don’t.

isn’t really true either. A coach requires multiple skills to help a team succeed, so what is “it”? It’s not really a binary answer. Clearly Garrett already has some significant strengths. His ability to develop a very productive offense is indisputable. His ability to work around significant flaws has been demonstrated consistently as well. He has shown some problems with clock management, as well as perhaps being slower to make in-game adjustments. Still unknown is talent evaluation. The Harbaugh in Blatimore has benefitted from one of the best front offices in football, much the way Tomlin has in Pitt. I don’t think many here would say Garrett has theat in his corner in Dallas, and yet his offenses have been in the top ten since he got to Dallas. You can pick out all the ugly trees you like, but you have to look at the whole forest if you want to understand what he brings to the team.

I disagree. I work with people, other human beings, and am around others who do too, obviously.

And some things are natural. You can show some people the same “techniques” you use, but when they put them into operation it just doesn’t work. The people they are trying to lead don’t respect them as much as others.

There are subjective personality issues in human relationships. To say that you can “learn” how to deal with other people is ludicrous. Who you are is who you are.
You an improve etc., but there’s a limit to that. And also people can tell when you’re working at it too much.

That's interesting.

I remember reading the game thread during the 9ers game. Remember when we had the penalty on their field goal attempt late in the game that would have given them a first down. He declined the penalty. His fans were crucifying him for not taking the first down. His argument was that you don’t take points off the board. This is the same conservative style that Garrett used in Arizona, opting to attempt a game winning field goal instead of risk failure while trying to advance the ball.

Would many Cowboys fans have crucified him for that? Yes, likely many more. But the media? Didn’t even raise the subject. A game that went into overtime, and they took a field goal instead of a first down in the red zone. Harbaugh has much better judgment, though. ESPN says so.

If you’re going to compare coaches, at least do it fairly. Cherry picking the SportsCenter highlights doesn’t benefit anyone.

You pick a single example

And claim I’m the one doing cherry picking? Um, hypocrite, heal thyself.

I don't think thats any different from your complaint about the AZ game

what other game management issues from a HC perspective were there?

And keep in mind that “we were in fg range” attitude was also applied in the san francisco game at the end of regulation. Few complained then, though I didn’t like it in either case.

Thanks for clearing that up.

So, when we beat the 49ers, were they outplayed or outcoached? This article suggests we didn’t outplay them, and popular opinion suggests we couldn’t have outcoached them.

Also, in the recent game, wouldn’t a well-coached team have not taken the touchdown on that second-to-last drive, killing the 2 minute warning and some of the Saints timeouts? Questionable call, right?

Well, now. That's fairly extreme.

Your contention is that Harbaugh is a better coach. Presumably, a better coach would have fewer errors on his resume, given that their resumes are the same length. So, you pointed out one example, indicating that you’ve satisfied the conditions for Harbaugh being a better coach. Garrett’s one egregious error clearly submits to Harbaugh’s flawless record.

And then I give you an example of Harbaugh mismanaging a game. Now it’s 1-1. They both have one potentially game-ending error. Both mistakes could have decided the game in regulation had the outcomes been different.

This puts the burden on you to explain another large error on the part of Garrett, reestablishing Harbaugh as superior until I once again give an example of Harbaugh’s flaws. The burden of proof falls on the one making the claims. I won’t say Garrett’s better, but I’m not going to bow before the great Jim Harbaugh, either.

The cherry picking is only because you chose to echo a popular refrain to back your point. Anti-Harbaugh storylines are far more scarce, and, therefore, a hypocrite I am not.

Actually, I DO think Dallas outplayed them in that meeting

In large part due to Romo, who played arguably the best game of his career…

But I think the 49ers win 7 or 8 out of ten contests vs. the Cowboys

That's fair.

Did Romo overcome a coaching deficiency, though? It would appear coaching was not a notable factor in deciding the game. If that were the case, then Harbaugh isn’t a vastly superior coach.

If anything, Harbaugh made the biggest impact by opting for a field goal over a first down inside our 30.

I don't think so
But I think the 49ers win 7 or 8 out of ten contests vs. the Cowboys

Remember, Cowboys didn’t have L. Robinson on the roster (I think that was the game he was cut) or Dez Bryant playing. Even without those playmakers, Romo was able to rack up 345 yards passing.

The 49ers are a bad offensive team. The reason they won against the Saints is that the Saints are a really, really bad defensive team. This year’s Cowboy’s defense wasn’t bad — it was average (but “average” is bad in the eyes of most fans). That being said, the 49ers cannot do what hurts the Cowboys defense the most — consistently make throws down the field.

The Cowboys matched up really well against the 49ers.

I would give the definite edge to the Cowboys and the games would likely be decided by who turned the ball over the most.

As for Garrett vs. Harbaugh, I have watched enough 49er games to get a feel for his coaching style. However, he has done a lot with what he had. There is a difference between “during the week” coaching and “gametime” coaching. You can be good one in one phase and not the other.

That being said, I thought Harbaugh’s decision to go for the field goal was iffy. However, Garrett coaches scared a lot of times (I think he may have gotten it from Wade). The strength of the 2011 Cowboys are their offense (or more specifically, their passing game), but too many times in the 4th Quarter of games Garrett was willing to put the game in the hands of the defense and the running game (and sometimes the kicking game). Sure, it was the “safe” thing to do, but when you do that, you aren’t playing to the strength of your team.

Someone below mentioned how Harbaugh went for the “kill shot” by having Smith throw it, which is definitely a different decision than when he went for the field goal against the Cowboys. As such, he learned his lesson.

Garrett, however, hasn’t learned his lesson. Dallas is down 10 points to the Giants within 5:08 left in the game and its 4th and 13. What does Dallas do? They punt. Why, I don’t know? Punting in that situation is an admission of defeat. Even if you can hold them to a 3 and out, you still need to score twice and with much less time on the clock. Sometimes you need to take a risk because taking a risk is the best way to win.

Actually, had you read my post

You’d have seen I mentioned several things. You want me to remind you of his silly, inexperienced, incompetent mistakes? Okay, you’d better mix up a new batch of Kool-Aid, and get yourself good and drunk on the corporate party line:

- Trying to pass on third and goal from the two against the Jets, when running the ball, immaterial of the result, would have put Dallas up by two scores in the fourth quarter and would have forced the pathetic Jets offense to win the game. Instead, Garrett calls a pass, which results in a sack and fumble, and we lose at least three points and a probable chance of winning the game.

- Going pass-happy again against the Lions, when we could have almost literally taken a knee and punted and won the game. Instead, he kept passing which gifted the Lions two touchdowns, got them back in the game which should have been an easy win, which we of course lost.

- Panicking and going so defensive against the Patriots that his offense gave the game back to Tom Brady with only a three point lead with under four minutes to play, essentially conceding a loss. Had he attacked one of the worst defenses in the league, he would have increased his chances of getting first downs and winning the game, instead of acting scared. Even if Romo had thrown an interception in that situation, Dallas still would have had time to drive for the winning touchdown. But because your boyfriend Garrett was so scared, he gave away the game.

- Again going scared against Arizona and not running at least one and probably two more plays to improve field goal position or potentially win the game. His clock management here was worse than most high school coaches.

- He pulled a similar stunt against the Saints last year, trying an impossibly long field goal and leaving two timeouts unused, as opposed to trying to improve the field position for a field goal. An amateurish mistake.

But this is your golden boy, right? The guy who mentally fumbles away four critical games last year, but whom no one should point our criticism?

Anyone who defends that sort of incompetence is either an idiot or a corrupt tool of a corrupt organization. You can decide into which category you fall.

Here is why Harbaugh is better.....

Alex Smith has been a slug his whole career. What does Harbaugh do on that last drive ? He let’s Alex Smith throw it over the middle for a kill shot td. He didn’t try for a fg. He went for the throat and stomped on it/

Garrett vs ther Pats ? Garrett played scared. He didn’t go for the kill shot. Harbaugh as a rookie hc knows when to run and when not to. Garrett hasn’t figured this out yet. Too bad for Dallas.

let’s give him a similarly talented roster,

Who is responsible for the roster ? It ain’t hard. This is why Dallas is watchin and San Fran is playin. tic toc tic toc tic toc …waitin for the “Jerry won three superbowls crowd”

More than likely

It’ll be the “San Francisco is just lucky” crowd, trying to make the argument that Alex Smith’s drastic drop in interceptions is just a random fluke. Superior coaching doesn’t matter, it’s all draft picks. And luck.

That’s the argument for now; it’ll be something else once it’s shown to be a sham.

what happens if the Giants go into San Francisco and do what they just did to Green Bay?

we are so reactionary, in every conceivable direction

Well, if Eli plays an average game,

And the Giants defensive line plays well, while the running game is moderately successful, and the other team can’t get out of their own way…

There will be clear and indisputable evidence that ELI MANNING is the best quarterback of ALL TIME!

Hmm...it cut off.

Sarc tag should read “There will be clear and indisputable evidence that ELI MANNING is the best quarterback of ALL TIME!”

The sarcastic tag doesn't like it when it has to go farther than one line.......
It means with a rookie hc and "no offseason" they far exceed expectations.
what happens if the Giants go into San Francisco and do what they just did to Green Bay?

It means Harbaugh was able to get that team to play to their strengths. At least they have some strengths.

Eli will be under far more pressure this week than before.
While Harbaugh has definitely been impressive in year 1

lets remember it was just a couple years ago that Mike Singletary went 8-5 in his first 13 games with a much crappier SF team filled with guys who had potential but not amounted to much. Everyone was raving about him then (many wanted him as Dallas’ HC), yet a year later opinions were significantly different. I think he actually deserves plenty of credit for this teams’ attitude, along with Harbaugh.

1 successful year doesn’t mean he will be a great head coach. Bill Parcells + Wade Phillips both had fantastic year ones, followed by so-so coaching tenures afterwards. Sparano too. I’m sure there are many many more.

Look at how many close games the 49ers won this year – they were 3-1 in them against the East alone, 6-2 overall. Thats proven to be unsustainable. Without the Eagles crapping the bed, they’re headed to NO in round 2 against a Saints team that routs everyone at home.

Harbaugh is a rookie HC in the NFL, but not overall

JG is a rookie head coach. sometimes i think JG is too smart for his own good. hopefully he will learn how to “dumb” things down a bit.

Poorer level of talent

That results in bad execution will make any coach look bad. I don’t know if JG is a great play caller or “too cute” / “too smart” but overall, he has produced some remarkable offenses despite glaring problems on the line. Talent infusion is what this team needs.

As always, Dunk, you are both right and succinct
"remarkable" offenses??!!

you have to score points to be “remarkable”
His offenses have been average, mediocre. This idea that he’s an offensive “genius” is way overstated here.

Lok at the points scored by this team game-by-game over the last three years and define “remarkable.”
“remarkable” is putting up 30 points consistently, being an offense other teams fear, scoring not just against bad teams but good teams too.

Agreed

The only remarkable offense under Garrett’s rule was 2007, and even that year’s model sputtered down the finish line, with 49 points in their last four games (3 losses). Despite all the “talent” and high-profile players, the offense under Garrett has been more reknowned for piling up a decent amount of yards that don’t translate into a very impressive amount of points, and that have a disturbing tendency to shrivel up late in the season (see 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011)

yes, agree. Too many people forget it was Wade's D that led the '09 playoff run, not the O
Give JG an OL and see what he can do.
I don't have time to run all the numbers, if I even knew how to, but

Garrett’s offenses have been top ten for most or all of his time as the play caller. I think average would be around 16. And when you consider the issues they have had on offensive line and running back, I stand by my impression that overall Garrett has done a very good job calling the offense.

Here are the numbers, Larry

Offensive ranking:
2007
Scoring: #1
Total yards: #2

2008
Scoring: #10
Total yards: #10

2009
Scoring: #8
Total yards: #2

2010
Scoring: #3
Total yards: #4

2011
Scoring: #9
Total yards: #8

Top ten, by definition, can’t be mediocre. Garrett is a talented Offensive Coordinator and a pretty good HC with some room for improvement.

Just to clarify, those are all NFC rankings

so that’s middling point production in 2008, 2009 and 2011

I have no idea how I ended up in the NFC only column.

which is why I’m not to be trusted around numbers.

If you look at total yards – another good metric – he is still in the top third except in 2008. No way I’m going to compare all the other OCs during the same time because I don’t have that kind of time, but I would still contend that is a very good record and comparable with just about any other OC.

Fans like to blame coaches and QBs because it’s simpler. I think the talent level, especially in core units like DL and OL, have been below the level of the more consistent teams. It’s probably a reflection of JJ’s approach to talent acquisition, but I also believe it has been far and away the number one factor in limiting the potential of the skill players, rather than play calling. Given that Garrett is essentially a rookie HC, it’s pretty hysterical to be questioning already whether he can do it.

just to be clear

2011:
15th in points @23.1 per game, 11th in yards at 375 per game

2010:
7th(tied)in points @ 24.6 per game, 7th in yards @ 364 per game

2009:
14th in points @ 22.6, 2nd in yards @ 399.4 per game

2008:
18th in points @ 22.6 per game,13th in yards @ 344.5 per game

2007:
2nd in points @ 28.4 per game, 3rd in yards @ 365 per game

Averages are:
11th in points @24.26 per game, 7th in yards @ 369.58 per game.

I would say Garrett is a pretty good OC…..

Note: Average rank is for Dallas only and is not a comparison rank

Harbaugh did a great job.......

Give the man his due, SF is in the NFC championship game and Dallas aint, but we got the 14th pick. Some people think that’s more important than being in the playoffs.

come on Wolf - this team was going nowhere in the playoffs....
That's what people said last year about GB when they backed into the playoffs.

Maybe Dallas wouldn’t have, but to root against your team so they get a better draft pick is sick. IMHO

well i dont think there fans openly rooting for the Cowboys to lose....

there were fans that were comfortable with the Cowboys losing as a means to getting it over with….

there was last year
mah - i think it was just frustration....indifference

kinda like battered wife syndrome…not to make light of battered wives

Some said they were rooting for a loss, there were even fan post about it.
Very few were rooting for a loss, but there is solace with the #14 pick.
I only remember Lissy rooting for losses this year

last year, I was rooting for losses by the end of the season. If we were in the Colts’ position I would prefer we lose too so we could get Andrew Luck. But we had a competitive team this year and I would’ve never rooted for a loss this year

just like the Giants were going nowhere
ha ha ha Terry - you said the Giants were no better than the Cowboys....not me

giants have a better team, proven coaching and players (including a QB) with a SB victory…

it didnt look like they could beat GB on paper – but they did….

to make the assertion the the Cowboys could do the same would be ridiculous…

at the time I said that, they weren't better

Giants started playing better and we didn’t. That being said, they are not that much better of a team than the Cowboys and they definitely don’t have a better qb, thats laughable. With a good OL and defense, Romo would have at least two rings by now.

GB played awful, thats the big reason why the Giants won…I don’t think they’ll get so lucky against the Niners though.

Like the playoff games so far, it's who wins the turnover battle.
So it's completely random then.
LOL. According to FiTaT, right?
Eli has passed Romo. Sad but true.....

The gap between the Giants and Dallas is rather large. Dallas had no answers for the Giants in new York. It is what it is. Dallas is just barely mediocre. Giants well they have a shot at the superbowl. Dallas faded like a shooting star to close the season. Gmen manned up. Typical for Dallas.

Eli is having a season like Alex Smith.

Playing better than usual.

Why would a Cowboys fan give Eli credit for games his defense is winning? Eli’s role so far has been to pass against two of the league’s worst defenses.

There’s no storyline of Eli rising up, but rather of the opposing offenses stumbling or self-destructing.

Romo had better games and a better season against better defenses.

What good defenses did Romo play great against that E Manning didn't

Cowboys fans have to quit making excuses for Eli winning games! Listen, one more Super Bowl win and there will be TWO Manning brothers in the NFL Hall of Fame!

Every bad team had a good defense. They played green bay and new orleans,

We played detroit and tampa. Tampa, and every other team in the NFL, has a better defense than Green Bay. Detroit has a far better defense than New Orleans. Therefore, Eli had les impressive numbers against less impressive defenses. The fact that both Green Bay and New Orleans scored periodically also means Eli had more offensive possessions with which to play against the abysmal defenses, and, still he failed.

The fact that an individual goes to the hall of fame for driving the bus is inconsequential.

Eli hasn't been running for his life. Protection will make any good QB much better.
Manning is better than Romo this year - FACT
FANTASY

Eli has his best year ever and… it’s still worse than Romo’s. If that doesn’t tell you something, you’re not trying.

Eli is finally playing up to the reputation he got from his SB year, but he’s not clearly better than Romo. Watch closely. He gets time to throw, he has WRs who sell out to get to the ball and he has a defense (finally) that helps him ot when he needs them to. They are a more complete team.

They said that about the giants too.
im no way saying Harbaugh isnt a great coach

IMO hes coach of the year hands down.

Side note.......

Haley said his office was bugged in KC, about 20 employees and exemployees said yeah it’s true. The next HC has something to think about.

wow thats royally messed up.

after this who would want to coach there?

No one who can be a HC somewhere else.
I know

Holy crap!

WOW

that’s insane

There is a big story in the KC paper about this, I linked it on a fanshot.

It is pretty scary reading. Major paranoia in that organization. Even employees who have been with the team for decades are required to keep window shades down if they face the practice field so they don’t aid the enemy.

I wonder if Haley can sue over something like this

Especially if it was done unknowingly.

I know you want to win in the NFL but I think that's taking it too far

It’s counterproductive and it’s not gonna let you create a working environment that will lend itself to winning

More pathetic than the Patriots thing....

This post just reaffirms my belief that our talent level simply isn’t high enough and has been overrated (especially by our brilliant GM) for a couple of years now.

I just think the 49ers draft well and have great personnel paired with great coaching
That pretty succintly sums the matter.
It also helps that they hed an abundance of top 10 picks over the last decade.
Not convinced.

The 49ers talent listed there on acquired players is totally lacklaster. And doesn’t the data in the article only find that “Great teams” on average have 1 extra player drafted than acquired?

Hey I guess somebody's garbage is someone elses's treasure.

Looking at it in hindsight, what players on the Niners present staff did everyone think JJ should have signed before the season? Could he have or were they close to the cap limit?

The game

Is won in the trenches.

DeCastro!

Nicks & DeCastro plz

Ideal scenario for me.

Or Grubbs and DeCastro

Elite OL for years to come. Build the OL this year and the D in round 2-7 and beyond until 2 elite units are completed.

Myers and DeCastro please
Is decastro such a sure thing?

From occ’s post earlier, many first round linemen are not even as good as average in their rookie seasons.

To me picking an O lineman in the first means we have a multi year plan in place – which is good I suppose. I Trust garret and if he is adhering to a set plan to make us successful over the long term then he has my trust. It’s just that the defensive line and secondary are so, so terribly bad and inconsistent that I feel like we can roll with the Oline that we have (or bring in a FA) and focus on the D. Of course this works the other way as well, if we go Oline in the first and score some decent-good FA on defense then I think we will be much improved.

The reality of the situation is that he's the surest thing in this draft and if he's there at #14

he’ll be the BPA. Since we need so many parts, drafting him is a no brainer.

I realize with the losses of both the Pack and the Saints, the D oriented draft group will argue that D wins championships, but as has been pointed out our D is average at worst. We can have an elite O if we shore up the OL. We can improve the D to better than average or even a top 10 in the league with a few acquisitions. Then with the OL set, we can concentrate on building an elite D in next years draft.

Continuing to havt Romo running for his life is not acceptible and must be fixed. I’m unwilling to take a chance on the current Roster to solve 2 guard positions if DeCastro is available.

If he’s gone, then draft D BPA, and try to pick up Zeitler or Jones or ? later. DeCastro though is the man.

No, our pass D is atrocious and could be even worse next year without serious upgrades.

The only way drafting a non CB in the first round isn’t hopelessly moronic is if we sign a high quality CB FA. Do that and I could support shoring up the O-line.

We'll have to agree to disagree. And I hope that you're passion caused you to use the term moronic and not the evidence. You were probaby opposed to drafting Tron last year.

Well, he was my pick even though JJ Watt is a gamer. I’d still take Tron over JJ.

You do realize you're calling 75% of the BTBers moronic, since many who want to draft D in the first want to improve the pass rush over drafting a CB.
Nope, you're wrong. Tyron Smith was my choice given the Cowboy's position last year.

In fact I had been calling for drafting O-linemen in the first round for years. With the sudden, steep deterioration of Newman though, drafting a first round corner (or signing an equivalent talent in FA) to an already almost bare cupboard is the top priority.

I’ve presented loads of facts all over this site on multiple threads, including this one. I’ll charitably chalk your erroneous assumptions up to you becoming angry after seeing the word “moronic”, and failing to notice that I clearly described an action with that word and not people. Otherwise intelligent people can do moronic things. And yes, ignoring the fact that the Cowboys have a top 10 pass rush as measured by sacks and hits when evaluating secondary need is stupid, unless Dallas could somehow get a real monster in the front 7 that will elevate the pass rush to legendary status, which doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year. I’m also not sure about the percentage you give. I’ve seen plentiful advocates for various courses of actions, with some posters changing their minds from thread to thread.

Some
combination of Nicks + Grubbs, Decastro + Nicks, or Decastro + Grubbs

would be freakin awesome. Then go balls out on defense.

Absolutely +1

Paul Soliai please…

If my

Memory is correct, each year only 32 draft picks start their first year.

That sounds close

Over the last 10 years about half of the first and second rounders start in thier first year.

With the exception of Baltimore...

…the team that won the line of scrimmage was victorious this weekend. New Orleans kept it closer than expected along the line of scrimmage, but the turnovers killed them. Same could be said for the Packers.

Houston lost the game because of the turnovers. New England thoroughly whipped Denver at the line of scrimmage, despite losing the turnover battle (2-1).

This game is about controlling the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys have been built from the furthest of the line – in. Dallas has drafted (or traded for) wide receivers, cornerbacks, and running backs in the first round. Only Ware and Smith look like first round keepers that play on or near the line of scrimmage.

Time to change that strategy: or lack thereof.

build the lines Oline is close, finish that move on to the Dline
I've touted this fact before,

Since 2002 the Niners have been drafting in the top of the first round. That gave them tons of fire power.

being mediocre can deffinetely have an effect on drafting.

but you still have to hit on those pics. there biggest improvement is Alex Smith. he went from being a bust to being a legit QB.

Slow down on the legit QB stuff

He did have a nice last two minutes, but I still think that if he was a legit QB this game is a blow out. The fact that the Saints had 5 turnovers and still lost on basically the last play of the game should be a little concerning for 49er fans. For most the game, the playcalls seemed conservative (i.e. don’t fully trust the QB) with short receiver routes and Smith wasn’t harassed very much at all, but he seemed skittish too many times.
Either way, my team for the rest of the playoffs is whoever is playing the Giants, so I’m hoping Smith becomes more legit this weekend.

+1

Their team really struggled on 3rd downs. Their conversion percentage was only 27%

i didnt say he was elite or close. legit QB he is.

he is winning games….with alot of help from his defense. id say Trent Dilfer was a legit QB he wasnt great but he got the job done. same as Alex Smith

Smiths biggest problem is in his 7 years he has had 7 different OC's.

Switching schemes every year, never really knowing what you are doing, etc.

Exactly, but I don't believe he'll ever be elite.
I guess it depends on what definition of "legit" we're going with.

The last two minutes of the game, legit. The other 58 minutes or so, bus driver. I guess my levels ofs QB play go something like bad, bus driver, legit, then elite. Trent Dilfer was a bus driver. Smith may very well become legit, or even elite, but two minutes of one game doesn’t change my mind yet.
One play I can’t get out of my head was on a 3rd and long, he dumped it off to Gore while standing in a perfect pocket, with no pressure, even before his receivers finished running their routes. Like I said above, I REALLY hope he plays like a legit or even elite QB against the Giants. If not, then I’m rooting for the AFC in the Super Bowl this year.

The Giants are looking really good in this matchup.

Could be a rematch of the New York – New England superbowl.

I disagree, SF won't beat themselves like GB did
you have no clue whether SF will beat themselves and don't pretend like you do
SF's D will prevail by a close margin in this game, IMO.
Smith's performance in 2011 really wasn't THAT much better than his last two seasons

statistically, at least

But man…his performance against the Saints was Montana-esque. Gotta give him that.

I'd say throwing for a career high 3,100 yards and a 17-5 TD INT ratio and QB Rating over 90 says this was a career year.
I might take that a step further

teams that import 1st rounders almost always have salary cap space to do it. We did this a couple years ago with columbo and davis (and I feel like there was one more who I’m forgetting – Anthony Henry was a big signing, but he was a 4th rounder).

Look at our roster today. Nearly all of the starters were drafted by the team. Why is that? Because we overpaid for so much of the talent we resigned or signed in FA and spent years with minimal cap space, eventually needing to purge the roster. At this point I don’t think there is a single above average starter that was brought in through FA.

People like to bust on this team for poor drafting (and rightfully so), but the cap management has been just as big a problem. 2007 was a painful year – some big extensions were handed out (TO and Newman and Barber and Flo after the season) and they all played poorly following the pay raise, leading to tons of dead money piling up in future seasons.

On the subject of drafting though, the undrafted FAs/7th rounders – Romo, Miles and Ratliff – have kept this roster afloat. Meanwhile, this team has had 5 first round picks in the 20s (the 1st that turned into Julius + Spears, Bobby,Jenkins and Felix, Spencer, and I may be forgetting one) that have all made moderate contributions but they are pretty much average starters at their positions at best.

absolutely right. foyes

Great, and important, point.

so when I say 2004, Spears in the 2005 first, 2006, 2009

really hurt this team from homegrown standpoint, I’m not just speaking in hindsight.

there plenty of cowboys fans who hated those picks when they were made, BOBBY CRAP, really??

Because they were so devoid of success...

The 49ers had no star players with big contracts so they were able to go out and get the very best veteran free agents.

and yet we beat this team this season

with our qb playing with one functioning lung…..I think we’re a lot closer to being as good as SF than most fans here think.

A few interior linemen on both sides of the ball, a good CB and another pass rusher away. Thats not too much to acquire in one off season.

that was also the 2nd game of the year mang

alot of things change over the course of the season…

by that logic the Jets are better than the 49ers

and a lot of things can happen over the course of an off season as well
+1
The Niners are putting everything into this season...

Let’s see how they do next year when everyone is more informed of what they are doing on film, and how they deal with having to play a first place schedule. I do think that Saturday was more of an anomaly, considering the fact that they scored 36 point with the worst red zone offense in the league.

Simply put, I think...

you’ve nailed it. It’s not that complicated I believe. But what would almost ensure that we make great strides would also include depth: 1) we need in addition to a good CB, a couple of well-performing CBs 2) and some depth at ILB also.

Combined with the coaching changes we’ve made, we should be good.

Finally, I just don’t see any need for Wade Wilson. To help Romo take it to the next level (which I think he made great strides toward in pressure situations as the season went on), let Callahan help him as OC or bring in some fresh thoughts via a new QB coach

first place schedule?

that affects 2 games…

2 games might be the diff between playoffs and sitting at home

well they still get the cupcake NFC West to play

For the Cowboys this year, it was giving up several spots in the draft order.
wasnt San Fran like 4-0 against playoff teams this year?

thought i read that somewhere

Still goes back to the Any Given Sunday theory.

They just got more given Sundays than everyone else?

two games is the difference between 10-6 and 12-4

also, its the god damned nfc west, besides the seahawks sometimes remembering that they are not in fact a high school jv team there is no one there to give the niners a true challenge.

Right, it's the NFC west, even Dallas might win that division.
dude - its not 2 wins - its 2 games...

so it means the difference between playing Bears/GB in one game and Saints/Falcons in the other….

not saying that the difference is negligible – but it could turn out to be nothing either….

More like

Vikings/Green Bay and Bucs/Saints

I find it really interesting that a lot of people have been

saying to only invest 1st rounders on offense that defense is not as important. I think the Giants/49ers wins pretty much contradicts that statement. Isn’t it really interesting that the 2 teams with the most explosive offenses were eliminated this weekend? It also goes to show that you need to have a really really good pass rush which we don’t have.

You have to take the 2 losses into context though. When the Saints, Colts, etc., won the SB, their Ds weren't that great.

What if the Pats win this year? I just think that these two losses don’t indict Elite Os. The only team to win a SB without an O was the Ravens with an incredible D. Otherwise most recent SB winners scored a ton of points.

The Saints and Colts defenses were

better than this years Saints/Packers. The problem with these high powered offense without any defense, is if they aren’t running on all cylinders-like the Packers yesterday-odds are they lose. You don’t have to have a great defense, but you have to have a lot better than what we saw out of the Packers/Saints this past weekend. I’d take a balanced team in all three phases any day over a team that is all offense or all defense.

We could have an elite O and a top 10 D if we play FA and the draft right.
Even the worst defense proves a point.

As bad as the Patriots are, even they complement a first round CB who made the Pro Bowl last year with a very high second round safety. Dallas is projected to have even less talent in its secondary than that next year, with an inconsistent Jenkins being the only starter drafted higher than the fifth round. All the playoff teams have more talent in their secondary, even the ones with bad overall defenses.

My belief is that we can easliy have a prolific elite O next year if we protect Tony.

Our D wasn’t that bad, and if we can improve in certain areas on D, secondary and DL, we will not have an elite D, but a top 10 D, which should be good enough to compete next year.

The facts state that Dallas will have a less talented secondary than EVERY playoff team.

While Pro Bowls and draft status are obviously imperfect measures of quality, it’s noteworthy that Dallas is projected to rank so poorly in that metric, even against playoff teams with weak defenses.

We already had a near top 10 offense despite all the injuries. If Murray, Romo, and the WR corps stay healthy and the offensive line improves with off season work we should be even better.

We can protect Tony while still making CB the top priority. We can even draft O-line in the first round, IF we address CB needs in FA.

I don't agree, their defenses got really hot during their playoff runs
The last 6 times

That a top 5 offense played against a top 5 defense in the playoffs, the team with the top 5 defense has won all 6 times. SF beatin NO was number 6, and this trend has spanned the last 3 seasons (Kurt Warner’s Arizona team in 08 was the last top 5 off to beat a top 5 def in the playoffs).

Most of the time, teams that are top 5 in either category are going to be pretty good teams, and most of those pretty good teams will be in the playoffs. To me, it screams that if you not only want to make the playoffs, but actually advance when you get there, having a good/great defense is key.

Bad days, bad weather, unlucky bounces (turnovers), etc have WAY more effect on offensive teams. Great defense is great defense pretty much regardless. The playoffs this year are proving it all over again. Packers, gone. Saints, gone. New England is still alive, but playing an 8-8 team in the divisional round was quite fortune. Hell, Houston had two throws into the end zone for the win with a 3rd string, rookie QB, because of the way they play defense (and it was built in 1 off-season, and even missing it’s best player). Don’t be surprised if Baltimore and San Francisco are in the Superbowl. And please, to all of you clamoring for anything other than defensive players in this draft, take some time to look all of this up. If Decastro is the choice, I hope like hell, that a bigtime FA has already been signed prior to the draft, and that rounds 2-7 are ALL on the defensive side of the ball.

You can win with a mediocre defense is the point.

We don’t have time to piddle around waiting for the Defense to play catch up with the offense. You play to your strength. Right now that’s the offense.

Speaking of playoffs,you forgot to mention that remarkable defensive team, the Steelers

How far did that wonderful ranked defense get them. Teeebooooooow even managed to take them out.

Well, considering

injuries they had coming in to that game, plus the players that were injured in the game on the defensive side, I’d say the guys they had on the field weren’t the same as the ones who made up their regular season defense.

And as far as getting “taken out”, everything I just mentioned plus the QB playing in one leg, and the RB not plating at all may have had something to do with it.

But thanks for your correction…I guess

Dang

I had always been a Jerry supporter, but this article has convinced me that maybe I should start doubting him.

Great owner but doesn't know diddly about the game of football, therefore, not a great GM.
Yep, only 2 games away from being a Daniel Snyder.
One other important thing to remember......

why in the heck would you blitz SF and leave single coverage on on Vernon Davis on the winning TD? Totally stupid IMO.

The ONLY player that would instill any kind of fear...

and they have no one over the top? Unconscionable!

definitely.......

yeah SF played a really good game but NO handed them the game with all of their turn-overs and really really bad defensive calls.

I thought they had double coverage on him, the underneath guy lost his position

the biggest reason the niners are playing great is because of their defensive front 7. four of their front seven are playing their position at an all-pro level. Not a pro bowl level – best in conference – but an all-pro level – best in league. justin smith (he was putting bushrod on skates all day yesterday), aldon smith, patrick willis, and navorro bowman. the secondary is free to ballhawk because of the quick throws coming from a quarterback under pressure.

Great perspective here... both coaches have proven a lot in their initial seasons

SF looked a lot better the last 2 years but Harbaugh has instilled that winning attitude and obviously had a great situation. There’s a lot of parity in the NFL and 9-7, 10-6 teams have a legitimate shot. How else do you explain Superbowl teams with a combined record of 49-15 the last 2 years losing to teams with 31-35 with home field advantage?

Thanks in part to Jerry Jones, Garrett has a lot less to work with. We’ve been paying out some big $ for guys who just did not produce. We were screwed in the free agent market and should be a lot more aggressive this year.

Also, guys like McGee, Arkin and Demarco didn’t get time to develop, especially due to Demarco’s injury. The lock-out really hurt us but we had a good season.

Dallas was the only team to beat SF at home this year, not even New Orleans could beat them, and both of us lost in Arizona.

Both Dallas and SF lost in similar fashion to Arizona
Dez getting into trouble in a miami nightclub i hear lol

big surprise there…

dez was not arrested nor charged ..so thats a plus
question

in FA what would you rather have. Nicks or L. Robinson. say you could only sign 1, which is it?

Nicks Romo more important than Robinson.

They’ll find the money to do what needs to be done this year.

Plus L-Ron wants to come back.

False comparison - Nick will have a contract 3x the size of Robinson's.
i know but ifthey sign Nicks might not afford L Robinson.
I appreciate the analysis.... great post...

but you are what you are. the niners have a home game to go to the super bowl and i have a feeling they would not be there except for harbaugh. yes, they already had a loaded squad. but he got them there so i’m prone to give him credit for it.

garrett got us to 8-8 but i just get the feeling he could’ve got us to a 13-3 if we had a bounce or two in the other direction. but that’s the difference between great coaches and good ones. shoulda coulda woulda.

i’m not saying harbaugh is a great coach. not saying garrett isn’t. i’m just sayin’ for this year harbaugh was and garrett was not. hopefully next year that changes.

I think the lesson is that you have to acquire the talent.

Most of us agree that Dallas fumbled the 09 draft. 10 and 11 were much better. The question is just how long will it take for the team to get the talent level up to playoff caliber? It might be done in one more draft/off season, but it might also take another year or two.

Every season there seem to be one or two teams that have a sudden turnaround or have unexpected success, but they usually don’t sustain it. I would rather see the team build a solid core of talent and then work at maintaining it year in and year out to become a perennial playoff participant again, rather that get a one year breakthrough that they can’t maintain.

Just the way I would like it.

Tom we can be that team.

Protect Tony is number 1, then improve the D to the extent that we will be competetive. We can easily become elite on O, and become a top 10 D also.

Thank you:
By extension: want to know why Harbaugh had a Midas touch? It’s because he inherited a really freakin’ talented roster (particularly along the lines) that had been growing up under previous coaches Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary and became fully-fledged in 2011. Before we condemn Garrett for failing to achieve what Harbaugh has, let’s give him a similarly talented roster, a front seven that can take over games, an elite running game, and an offensive line that can dominate in the fourth quarter.

It has bugged the hell out of me to see Harbaugh get total credit for the turnaround. Yeah, I think he should get some credit for helping the team jell, but he owes a debt of gratitude to his predecessors for giving him the building blocks to work with.

A good way to test the talent theory

Is to see how acquiring it changed the team’s record. San Francisco had been acquiring these first-day draft picks for years, with no change in record. In fact, they got worse from 2009 to 2010. despite getting more talent. The five first rounders acquired by San Francisco from other teams had largely undistinguished careers prior to their arrival. So did getting Aldon Smith and the rest of the 2011 draft class suddenly convert this formerly sad-sack roster from 6-10 to 13-3? That’s hard for me to accept.

The more likely explanation is, like when Sean Payton arrived in New Orleans, the 49ers hired a really, really good coach. The really good coaches make a difference and quickly. My sense is the talent level of San Francisco had been underestimated before Harbaugh’s arrival, but now I think it’s being overestimated.

Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary failed to get those players to reach their full potential.
So in other words, it was coaching

I think that proves my point.

Nolan and Sing hired yes men coordinators and
position coaches who couldn't develop the talent

Nolan and Sing would yell at the players and say stuff like

“Protect the football” “Run the football” “We need balance on offense” “Hit people in the mouth”.

A lot of emptiness, no substance. On offense it was Frank Gore running dive plays up the middle on first and second down. On third down expect Alex to hit Vernon on a seem route or Crabtree/other receiver on an out route. Teams figured out, and they never won more than 7 games.

On defense, it was everyone let Patrick Willis play like Ray Lewis while you guys get out of his way. As a result they could only shut down the run, and get routinely tail whipped through the air.

I don't know anymore if this team is close to competing for a SB.

This team might need to just blow it all up and start building around 2010 and 2011 guys if this roster fails to be a playoff team.

It’s hard to accept, but I definitely would consider the following moves of this team doesn’t make the playoffs:
1) Trade Tony
2) Trade Witten
3) Trade Miles
4) Consider trading Ware for a Richard Seymour type trade.

I’m not saying do it now. I’m saying do it next off season if 2012 isn’t a playoff year.

This team will have to start building for long term success if this core group fails next season.

We're not quite there yet, but not far away

Also, you never trade Tony. In a 32-team league there’s only about 17 quarterbacks to go around.

I have no problem drafting a QB with our 1st round pick next year if this team crashes and burns again, though.

Fair enough.

Been a very difficult 2 weeks for me
thinking about this team. I’ve had some shoot from the hip comments today and yesterday concerning them.

I do agree, we need a QB to compete, and I’m not a Romo hater. I was also making those trade comments so I can see them have the opportunity to win a ring.

earlier this season

I was open to trading Romo if things continued on a similar trajectory. That was also when our defense was playing solid ball. But after watching Tony play lights out in November and December, no way I’d draft a future replacement for another year or two. We have enough needs to not invite that sort of controversy. Its not like we have a shot at Luck or RG3 anyway.

I’ll trust Garret with whatever he decides – I don’t think it would be the worst thing to have his own young qb to groom, but I’m certainly not going to call for Romo to be replaced.

Sorry, but I think that's ridiculous. They've said they're on a three-year building program, and

they seem to be going in the right direction with drafting. They’re bringing in new coaches. You think they can do everything by next season and make the playoffs, and if they don’t, blow it all up? That makes no sense to me.

+1

it’s not like those draft picks we acquire will magically turn into all pro players

Exactly. What I want to see is ongoing progress.
If this truely is a 3 year rebuild while staying afloat process

They still need to consider finding guys who will be ready to step in for Tony, Miles, Witten, and Ware by about 2015 or 2016. That’s 3-4 years from now, but they have to keep an eye to the future.

I have no problem with that. I do have a problem with laying down an ultimatum that

everything has be turned around in one off season.

Speaking out of frustration mostly.
Yeah, I can understand that.
It is weird seeing young and fantastically athletic tight ends

like Gronkowski, Hernandez, Graham and Davis have HUGE games this weekend (combined 8 TDs), when our getting older and banged up tight end seems to not be the player he once was.

I didn't think you were allowed to criticize Jason Witten on here?
Good article Rabble!

The problem with this team is that they aren’t talented enough. Jerry blew so many draft picks from 2006-2009 and made insanely bad trades and free agency acquisitions.

This team is left with not enough talent to compete. We need good drafts and good free agent signings.

2004 and 2006 are on Parcells
Whoever you blame the effect is here

bad drafts from 2006-2009 doomed this team. Terrible trades like the Anthony Spencer and Roy Williams trades doomed this team. Bad contracts like the Marion Barber and Leonard Davis contracts doomed this team.

This team has so many terrible terrible decisions it has to recoup from it’s difficult to believe it really has a shot at ever winning a superbowl. It’s a massive uphill climb, but they have to do it starting this offseason.

We're both in agreement here.
No way that argument holds water here, BED

your options for blame are restricted to the following personnel:
- Romo
- Garrett
- Ryan

sorry our of topic, anyone knows in which year was released ipod classic 7g?

You have to start by being able to beat the teams in your division and that is the most worrisome part. Right now the Giants and Eagles have each developed a group of talented wide receivers. The Cowboys can’t cover them. It is partly a pass rush problem and partly a coverage problem but it is a major problem. Until the problem is fixed, the Giants and Eagles will be difficult to beat. As much as I hope that things get better soon, I think that things may be difficult for a few years longer.

First, the two points in the article are not mutually exclusive. Maybe you need talent AND a good HC.

2nd, the idea that Harbaugh just inherited this freakin’ talented team is silly. People are so afraid to look at JG’s and Ryan’s deficiencies and also give Harbaugh credit.

As far as THIS year, he outcoached Garrett by a mile.
The real question is, assuming Dallas upgrades the talent w/ FA’s and the draft, can JG and Ryan lift their game??
That’s what Cowboys fans have to worry about. We’ll see.
I think Garret can improve his coaching, and a better OL will help.
But Ryan I don’t believe in. He’s a one-way street, blitz and cross your fingers. Good Luck in today’s NFL with that.

Key Point: “3) the ’Niners have acquired much more talent along the offensive and defensive lines (7 big uglies to 3)”
You win up front.

If you can't win the trench warfare

How good your skill position players and whether or not they can win their matchups becomes irrelevant.

agree 100%. JJ way overvalues WR's especially.
Wish we'd played with that edge all season, it got lost somewhere aong the way
God i would love that.

The 49’ers have built from the lines out, a philosophy I am generally on board with. While I hesitate on drafting ANOTHER OL in the 1st rd. this year given our terrible CB position, I am more willing to draft either a dominant OL or dominant DL in the 1st rd. if I knew Dallas was of the mindset to begin building for the future and get the lines in order first.

Additionally, I love Harbaugh’s playbook, particularly his running attack which attacks gaps along the outsides of the line very well. I am not sold that Garrett is as enamored with tough nosed, bruising running games as Harbaugh. However, I don’t think he’s as fancy and pass happy as he sometimes gets labeled as either.

I think the most disturbing thing for me as a Cowboys fan

No matter all the screw ups from 2005 through 2010 whether it was not finishing the season strong, or choking in the playoffs, or bottoming out, I could hang my hat and say “at least we’re not the 49ers, we’ve got more talent than that sorry team.”

Living in SF from 2007 through 2010, any time a 49ers fan wanted to make a Romo joke, I just said, “Alex Smith # 1 overall pick, now what?” If someone wanted to rip Wade, I’d respond “Singletary wants winners, he should come to Dallas, we’ve got winners!”

Now, all that has gone. Congrats 49ers, you have a team: players + coaches that us Cowboys fans should be envious of, even if Romo, Ware, Dez are better than Smith, Smith, and Crabtree.

I still think Garrett can get the job done here. We need to keep building off the 2010, and 2011 drafts, and hopefully start finding more than just two guys a draft who can contribute. Also, we need to do a better job managing the cap so we can do what the 49ers did and sign good free agents instead of JAGs like Elam, Coleman, and Gerald. I know we have cap room this year, hopefully we don’t get caught with our pants down if our plan A signs elsewhere.

Harbaugh in herited a talented team, there is no doubt about this.

But, don’t discount the power of leadership. Harbaugh took his team from a losing mentality to the NFC championship game. His players believe in him and displayed mental toughness throughout the season, Garrett had the division in his hands and proceeded to lose 4 out of the last 5 games.

Leadership and mental toughness does matter

giants fan here

but wow this is some freaking awesome analysis. i don’t see a lot of deep football analysis but this was a good read.

Tight End Weekend!!!

Heck, I expect everyone noticed it but the 9ers, Saints, Patriots, Packers have difference making TEs. Wish Bennett would step up and start stretching the field! Cause these other clubs are really getting some offensive production out of theirs.

From your conclusion

of Dallas having less imported talent leads to just one reason…

Dallas is paying too much for its own talent to be able to afford the imported variety.

So, not having free agents come to this team is actually a symptom of the problem with the problem being General Management and contract negotiation. And, it’s STILL continuing w/ the likes of Ratliff, Scandrick and probably Spencer.

"Dallas is paying too much for its own talent to be able to afford the imported variety."

Painfully true—and an indirect byproduct of poor drafting. When you aren’t consistently hitting on draft picks, it becomes that much more important to hold onto the decent players you have, even if they’re only decent.

Would they have re-upped buys like Ken Hamlin if they had hit on a young safety? No way. But they didn’t, so Dallas was hamstrung…

Hey rabble

I’m not sure how much work it would be (I’m sure Doug did quite a bit from the looks of his post) but is there a way to look at “tendancies” or the manner in which players from good, average and bad teams are retained (i.e. their contract amounts)?

To further illustrate the differences in the two rosters . . .

Below are the records of the two teams for the past 8 years and what position they drafted in the following year:

2010 – Dallas 6-10 (#10), San Francisco 6-10 (#7)
2009 – Dallas 11-5 (#24), San Francisco 8-8 (#11)
2008 – Dallas 9-7 (#69, no 1st or 2nd), San Francisco 7-9 (#10)
2007 – Dallas 13-3 (#22 & #25), San Francisco 5-11 (#29 & #39)
2006 – Dallas 9-7 (#26), San Francisco 7-9 (#11)
2005 – Dallas 9-7 (#18), San Francisco 4-12 (#6)
2004 – Dallas 6-10 (#11 & #20), San Francisco 2-14 (#1)
2003 – Dallas 10-6 (#43), San Francisco 7-9 (#31 & #46)

Coaches can only do so much . . . it’s all about the acquisition of talented players.

Harbaughs team is getting ready to play in the NFC championship game

Garrett’s are getting bailed out of jail.

http://www.foxsportssouthwest.com/01/16/12/Report-Dez-Bryant-detained-by-police-in-/msn_landing.html?blockID=647306&feedID=4680

Get your facts straight.

He wasn’t arrested, so how can he be getting “bailed out of jail.”

The facts are Dez once again is making more news off the field then on
I'd hardly call it news.

It’s really nothing. But people and the media want to blow it up like it is. He wasnt charged with anything. There still is no evidence of anything.. So?

Yeah People need to understand

just because you are “detained” by the police doesn’t mean you did anything wrong…what if he was merely a bystander that had a good look as to what happened? He would be detained as a witness, then released once he gave his statement…..

It is not a big deal, but look at it this way:

how often have you been detained by cops? How many times have your friends been detained by cops? It is not hard to stay away from cops.

Why is he getting in situations that draw attention from the cops? It is ridiculous. And don’t tell me it is because he is a famous athlete. There are thousands of famous athletes that are not drawing attention from the cops.

True, but

Anytime you are a professional athlete, play for a high profile team and the police are involved it becomes news. The sooner Dez realizes that the better for him and then team.

Ironman, the report said he was in a fight

Hopefully the report is wrong. But he needs to be smarter then this, and just walk away. At some point Dez is going to get attention of the league office

So when the Niners suck next year, this article will prove nothing.

Every year we see this happen. A new coach comes in, the team vastly improves, but declines in the years proceeding it.

The Sparano effect?

In 2008, as a first-year coach, Tony Sparano took the 1-15 Dolphins to an 11-5 record. In the three seasons since, he hasn’t had a winning record.

Raheem Morris also

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Blogging The Boys to post a comment.